Thunder vs. Pacers 2025 NBA Finals Game 3: Odds, Key Players, and Expert Model Predictions

• by Arlen Fitzpatrick
• 0 Comments

NBA Finals Return to Indianapolis After 25 Years: Thunder vs. Pacers Showdown

Indianapolis hasn’t hosted an NBA Finals game since 2000, so the city feels electric heading into Game 3 between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers. With the series locked at 1-1, every possession will have weight, and Gainbridge Fieldhouse is already sold out for the highly anticipated Wednesday night matchup at 8:30 p.m. ET.

The storyline so far? While the series tally is even, the Thunder vs. Pacers games haven't truly felt balanced. Oklahoma City has outplayed Indiana for long stretches. Game 1 saw the Thunder build a solid lead before Tyrese Haliburton’s late-game magic dragged the Pacers to a dramatic win. Game 2, however, was a thunderstorm—Oklahoma City jumped ahead by 23 and never really took their foot off the pedal, finishing with a 16-point advantage.

Odds, Star Power, and Betting Angles for Game 3

Bookmakers are sticking with the Thunder as favorites—Oklahoma City is giving 5.5 points on the spread, and the money line has them at -200. Indiana, with home-court advantage at last, enters as the +170 underdog. The over/under sits at 228.5 points, reflecting both teams’ offensive firepower. But computer models, like SportsLine’s predictive algorithm, aren’t so bullish, projecting just 222 total points and a tight win margin of 1.6 points in favor of the Thunder.

This gap between Vegas and the data opens the door for savvy betters. The model particularly likes the Under and suggests that one side of the spread—though it doesn’t say which—is hitting well above the 50% line in simulations.

So who’s really shaping this clash? All eyes land on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. His postseason numbers are eye-popping: 25 or more points in 15 of Oklahoma City’s 18 playoff games, and he’s broken the 30-point mark 13 times. The man is playing with an MVP chip on his shoulder, and Indiana’s defense hasn’t really figured out how to cool him down. Add in Chet Holmgren’s rim protection and Jalen Williams’ scoring as wildcards, and the Thunder look deep.

But the Pacers refuse to be background characters in this story. They're tough at home and desperate to snap a troubling playoff trend—Indiana’s dropped every Game 3 this postseason. Those earlier Game 3 losses came when they were up 2-0, but now with the series tied, the urgency is dialed way up. Haliburton’s leadership, allied with the energy of Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner, offers hope if they can avoid digging a deep early hole.

• Key matchup: Haliburton vs. Gilgeous-Alexander. Whichever team’s star delivers under the bright lights could tilt the game.
• X-factor: Indiana’s home crowd. The Pacers haven’t felt a Finals buzz in generations—can the fans turn Gainbridge Fieldhouse into a cauldron?
• Stat to watch: Turnovers. Oklahoma City forced Indy into trouble in Game 2. The Pacers need cleaner play if they want any shot at grabbing a lead.

Flip a coin for who grabs the series edge—on Wednesday night, history, pressure, and pure star power clash in Indianapolis, and the stakes couldn’t be higher.